Estimation of the long-period changes of groundwater level regime on the territory of Belovezhskaya Pushcha taking into account the omissions restoration in the time series of observations

The paper presents estimation of the long-period changes of groundwater levels in Belovezhskaya Pushcha taking into account the omissions restoration in the series of stationary hydrogeological observations. A modified version of the k-nearest neighbour (KNN) method, which takes into account both spatial and temporal autocorrelation of groundwater levels, was used to fill in the gaps in the time series of groundwater levels. The proposed method made it possible to reconstruct the dynamics of groundwater levels of different types of different genesis for the last 50 years with a relative error of less than 2–3 % for groundwater and sporadic waters and less than 10 % for pressurised interstratum waters.

Statistically significant trend of long-period change of groundwater levels at the level α = 0.01 according to the Mann – Kendall criterion is observed for 33 out of 40 hydrogeological wells, including 13 groundwater wells, 16 sporadic water wells and 4 pressure water wells. Estimates of groundwater level trends using the Theil – Sen method show that during the warming period in Belarus (since 1989) groundwater has decreased on average by 35 cm, pressure water by 25 cm, and sporadic water by 53 cm. The highest value of the trend slope is observed for sporadic waters of the Brovsky hydrogeological post – 0.34 m/10 years.

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